May. 5, 2009
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
It's probably the best field of the year, and it's on a course you should know by heart. Start moving around your plans now; you'll need four days of free time to fully enjoy the theatre at TPC Sawgrass.
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Last week: Six of the eight selections finished T22 or better, led by Tiger Woods (fourth), Ian Poulter (T5), Jim Furyk (T11) and Retief Goosen (T11). But the timing on activations was less than adequate, and I definitely left some points on the course. Add it all up, and it's 152 points for the week, more of a tread-water than anything since Woods was essentially a universal play and none of the picks got top-three bonus points. And so it goes.
PGATOUR.com Fantasy Golf -- here are the rules in a nutshell:
We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List.
From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well.
The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
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| A-List Selections |
JIM FURYK (Round 1 starter): He's played here as much as anyone as a Ponte Vedra Beach resident, and this is one tournament he wants to win very, very badly. Anyone who can make 11-of-12 cuts at Sawgrass has to go near the top of the favorites list, and his last six checks at THE PLAYERS Championship have been T28 or better (not too shabby given the dynamic nature of the field). Maybe I'm chasing a little on Furyk because I feel he's due to win another event of significance, and I can't help but want to use him on a course that requires a mix of power and patience, as Sawgrass does. Maybe my heart gets a little involved here as well because he's such a likeable pro. Call it what you will, I'm confident he can be a strong point-grabber for us here, a four-round story for sure. PHIL MICKELSON: I can't blame you if you want to start him on Thursday, because Phil knows what to do here. He hoisted the trophy in 2007, and he's made seven consecutive cuts over a track that generally taxes even the best players sooner or later. The challenge of the tiny greens at Sawgrass generally wouldn't be a problem for Lefty, but it hasn't been his best short-game season to this point. That said, he's still got two wins in the bag for 2009, which underscores what a talent this guy is. And if I'm not going to spend a Tiger play this week, it seems prudent to get Mickelson in the game at some point. Other A-List Options: • I know, I know, it's never easy leaving that Tiger Woods fellow on the bench, but rules are rules -- we only get 10 chances to use him. And let's face one simple fact: While Woods is the favorite at any event he tees it up, he's less of a favorite here than he is just about anywhere else. It's not his favorite layout, and the results show it; while he did win the event in 2001 on the heels of a second-place run in 2000, he hasn't done a lot at Sawgrass lately (no start last year, of course, preceded by this run: 37, 22, 53, 16, 11, 14). If the game didn't cap the times you can use Woods, I'd still dial him up - he's still the most talented player in the world by a clear margin; we all know that. But with a start limit in place, this is a time where you really have to strongly consider benching him - just don't tell Tiger we had this conversation, OK? • Geoff Ogilvy's game is portable to just about any challenge, but he's had some troubles of late over the Sawgrass track, wrapping a T37 in the middle of three missed cuts. Another super talent we'll wait on; pick a better spot. • Sergio Garcia's TPC resumé makes him a super pick - he beat Paul Goydos in last year's playoff (with a dynamic run down the stretch, I might add), and he was second and T14 the two previous years. But you've seen Sergio struggling this season, and with that, I ask you -- does he look ready to win at a tournament with this deep a field? The fan in me would love to be wrong because Garcia makes great theatre, but he doesn't seem to be anywhere close to his A-Game right now, and I don't think this is a course you want to step on without full confidence • Padraig Harrington grabbed a couple of second-place checks at Sawgrass in the middle of the decade, but it's been a tough go of it since (cut, 52, cut, 63). He's too big a name to discount out of hand, but that's a hard course resumé to get behind • Ernie Els knows what's needed at Sawgrass and has the results to prove it (6, 3, 8, 17, 26 over his last five starts). But after a missed cut at the Masters and a T48 at the Verizon Heritage, it doesn't look like Els is coming to Florida with his sharpest game, and his putting problems this season make me a little gun shy as well • Stewart Cink has a game that fits the challenge here, and he's fared well at THE PLAYERS Championship (five-of-six checks, a T3 two years ago), but his ordinary results in 2009 get me away from the case. He hasn't finished in the top 20 of a stroke-play event all year -- a stunning stat from one of the game's most consistent players • Whatever the secret is to a deep Sawgrass run, Justin Rose hasn't figured it out yet. He's got three consecutive trunk slams on his resumé, and he's yet to crack the top 35 in his career at this event • It's been a hit-and-miss track for Vijay Singh; he's missed three cuts in his last seven visits, but when he has it, he generally contends (8, 12, 13, not to mention a second-place finish in 2001) • Anthony Kim hasn't done anything of note at Sawgrass yet (cut, T42), and he's still looking for his best foot in 2009, off the injury. Let's wait this one out • Kenny Perry's game will translate to just about any course, and he's fared decently here (15, 58, cut, 3, 32, 60, 18, 27 over recent visits). But I'm still a little concerned about how he might handle the post-Masters stress, and I'd like to see another deep run from Perry before I jump back on the horse. |
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| B-List Selections |
SEAN O'HAIR (Round 1 starter): I don't mind that he won last week, it makes me trust O'Hair even more in this spot. Any trophy hoist builds a huge amount of confidence, and doing it in the shadow of a looming Tiger Woods means that much more. O'Hair contended at Sawgrass in 2007 but 10 messy minutes at No. 17 took him out of it; this time around, I see a maturing star who knows he should be part of the story for 72 holes. This almost feels like a mandatory play. STEPHEN AMES (Round 1 starter): The trip to Ponte Vedra Beach seems to agree with Ames more often than not; he won here in 2006, he finished fifth last year, second in 2002. That track record would look nice at any event, but here, it jumps out at you and demands a play. RORY MCILROY: I know, it's his Sawgrass debut, but the new-guy rules haven't applied to McIlroy thus far; the kid just seems too calm, too versatile, too confident. I'm not going to get him on the course to open the event, but this is the type of upside option you want ready in the bullpen if he gets some early momentum on the new track. J.B. HOLMES: I make this pick with some trepidation because I'm pretty much always wrong on J.B. Holmes. But he's run very nicely here over three career turns (10, 16, 38), and how are we going to spin that negatively? I wouldn't peg Sawgrass as a course that necessarily fits his skill set, but he's proven me wrong for three years running; if you can't beat him, join him. Other B-List Options: • It's been seven years since David Toms made a run here, and he's missed seven cuts in his 17 career starts at Sawgrass. I'm enjoying his rebound year as much as anyone -- he's gotten plenty of support in this column, and he's also on my hometown auction team -- but this isn't the right spot to get aggressive with the LSU Tiger • Nick Watney's been one of the breakthrough stories of the year, and maybe he's ready to take his A-Game to Sawgrass. He's got a missed cut and a T63 finish in two starts here • Steve Marino looks like one of the "win coming soon" players on TOUR, but I'm not calling for it here; he's yet to do better than 77 in four rounds at Sawgrass • Davis Love has two career wins at THE PLAYERS Championship, and he was inside the top 10 just four years back, but not a lot has happened since then (T54, T75, cut). There are too many slam dunks I have to look at before Love in this position • Brian Gay is another intriguing breakthrough player to consider, but he's yet to find his best foot down in Ponte Vedra Beach (32, cut, cut, 75, cut, 63, 40) • I'm not sure why Steve Stricker hasn't done better here -- his rock-solid irons and smooth putting stroke should translate here. He did have a T6 at Sawgrass earlier in the decade, but he's missed five of seven cuts since then, and I can't buck that trend now • It's been a hit-and-miss event for Zach Johnson, a T16 and a T8 against a couple of trunk slams. His balanced stat profile and cool demeanor always gives him a shot, though, and he was one of the last names I eliminated this week • Hunter Mahan has a T40 and a missed cut here, and one year he was forced to withdraw. I know he's going to have a year where he goes crazy on TOUR and starts winning everywhere, but it might be a season or two away • Adam Scott is another player I generally project incorrectly; I saw him as a major contender at Quail Hollow, and he didn't come close to making the cut. His resumé here is outstanding a win in 2004 and two top 10s since -- but I'm not convinced he's completely recovered from the earlier knee problem this year. |
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| C-List Selections |
HENRIK STENSON (Round 1 starter): Someone give Stenson a nudge and remind him how difficult TPC Sawgrass is. He's got three outstanding finishes here (10, 23, 3), and his worldwide resumé justifies him as a possible pick in any event, no matter the depth of the field. He's also attractive in this particular game because Stenson doesn't play that many PGA TOUR events -- you have to take advantage of his presence when you can. IAN POULTER: Here's another pretty easy selection, and if you want to put him over Stenson for Round 1, I won't argue. Poulter's game is coming around nicely over his last three events (T20 at the Masters, T13 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, T5 at Quail Hollow) and he's got a solid resumé at Sawgrass (four cuts in five starts, three straight top-30 finishes). He's yet to make a deep run at contending here, but Poulter's confidence has come a long way over the past calendar year, and I think it's just a matter of time before he wins a significant event. I'm expecting him to be relevant on the weekend. Other C-List Options: • You need some serious game to walk on this course for the first time and finish T6, as Robert Karlsson did in 2007. He's a strong play anytime you can get him in there, albeit he's slipped in recent weeks (a T53 at Quail Hollow, and a missed cut at the Masters) • Scott Verplank has missed the cut in two of his last four starts here, but there's a solid track record if you take a few more results (nine of 11 checks, including a second in 2005 and an eighth in 2003). His straight driver (sixth in tee accuracy), reliable irons (42nd in GIR) and solid putting (17th) give him a chance just about anywhere • The layout suits Luke Donald's eye just fine; he finished second in 2005 and has two solid checks the last two seasons (T27, T16). He's already grabbed four top 10s in 2009 (including a second-place finish at the Verizon Heritage three weeks ago), so you know he's close to breaking through • Charles Howell is always a popular play in this pool, but Sawgrass hasn't been his cup of tea. His best finish at THE PLAYERS Championship is an ordinary T32, and he hasn't cracked the top 50 over his last five visits • Ben Crane missed the cut in his first trip to Sawgrass, but he's improved in every start since, culminating in last year's T6 finish. Crane's got the type of personality you need for this layout, knowing when to attack and when to be patient, and I'm expecting another solid four rounds from him • Rocco Mediate usually makes the cut here; he's yet to miss a weekend this season, and come on, he's Rocco Mediate -- everyone's friend. I'll find some format or game to use him in this week, even if it's not in this particular contest. Let's just hope the back holds up for four rounds. |
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